Should I Be Concerned about El Niño and the 2026 Summer?

What is El Niño?

El Niño in Spanish means “boy child”, and was first used several hundred years ago by fishermen in Peru and Ecuador to refer to the unusually warm waters that reduced their catch just before Christmas. Today, El Niño refers to the warming of patches of water in the Pacific Ocean near the equator that affects global weather patterns, through winds and movement of moisture in the atmosphere and currents in the underlying ocean. El Niño occurs every 2-7 years and typically persists for about 9-12 months.

El Niño affects temperature and rainfall patterns in different regions of the world, and generally has a warming effect on the global climate. El Niño is a natural climate cycle, occurring over and above global warming due to greenhouse gas buildup in the atmosphere. Human-induced global warming due to fossil fuel combustion is a major concern due to its increasing trend.

El Niño occurrences are important because of their impacts

The strength of an El Niño depends on the intensity of the warming waters in the Pacific Ocean – the larger the warming, the stronger the potential impacts. The 2015-16 El Niño was one of the strongest on record, and the impacts include:

• A record-setting hurricane season in the central North Pacific, with sixteen hurricanes over the unusually warm ocean, well above the long-term average of 4.7 hurricanes per season.
• High temperatures and low rainfall over the Caribbean, with 10 island nations experiencing severe drought. In Antigua, the 1-billion-gallon reservoir behind the Potworks Dam went dry, and 65% of the island’s farmers went out of business.
• Much of Ethiopia received less than normal rainfall, including the northern, central, and southeastern highlands; the northeastern highlands got as little as one-third. Millions of people required food aid as a result of lost crops.
• Over Canada, the winter of 2015-16 was 1-5°C warmer than normal especially in Quebec, the central Prairies, and Yukon. The 2016 spring remained warmer than normal in western Canada and the Prairies. 

What’s in store for 2026, and for Canada?

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issues official El Niño assessments. A news release on April 24, 2026 noted “Forecasts indicate there is a nearly global dominance of above-normal land surface temperatures in the upcoming three-month period, and regional variations in rainfall patterns” – much of the planet could be warmer than normal.

Environment and Climate Change Canada’s (ECCC) seasonal forecast produced on April 30, 2026, noted a high probability of warmer than average temperatures over much of the country over the subsequent three months (May, June, July), especially over British Columbia. The Weather Network reported “Confidence increasing in a very strong El Niño this summer”, and describes some of the potential meteorological impacts.

Forecasts are inherently uncertain due to our incomplete understanding of the complex atmosphere-ocean system. Nonetheless, seasonal forecasts properly calibrated with uncertainty estimates, are important to guide actions to prepare for extreme events such as droughts, heat waves, and floods.

Should I be concerned?

CBC News reported an El Niño summer is a concern for the B.C. wildfire season, as parts of the province are already in drought conditions due to a low winter snow pack; a hotter and drier El Niño summer would increase the risk of dangerous wildfires. The B.C. Wildfire Service and B.C. Hydro are encouraging people to take precautions. The rest of Canada could also be warmer than normal, and heat waves and poor air quality due to wildfires could be made worse by the El Niño. The warming effects of El Niño are likely to extend to the winter of 2026-27 over Canada.

As the summer approaches with the likely emergence of a strong El Niño in 2026, Impact Net Zero will monitor developments over Canada and globally. We will also provide tips on dealing with heat waves and poor air quality.

Resources

• The MIT Climate Portal has a podcast on “What the heck is El Niño, anyway (From Outside/In)”; it is an episode of Outside/In, from New Hampshire Public Radio

https://climate.mit.edu/podcasts/tilclimate-presents-what-heck-el-nino-anyway-outsidein

• CBC Kids News has a video “A hot summer is looking likelier thanks to a strong El Niño”

https://www.cbc.ca/kidsnews/post/watch-a-hot-summer-is-looking-likelier-thanks-to-a-strong-el-nino

• The El Niño updates of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) provide meteorological information on the current conditions and evolution of the status of El Niño

https://wmo.int/publication-series/el-ninola-nina-updates

• Seasonal forecasts for Canada are provided by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)

https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/?page=cansips-prob